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About the Basketball Possessions Ending in TO and the True Percentage of Team Possessions Used


About the Basketball Possessions Ending in TO
and the True Percentage of Team Possessions Used:

by Prof. Roberto Azar - August 26th, 2017 ~ Last Update: April 15th, 2018

How we perform the analysis of one basketball (external link) team´s turnovers in relation with other team, let say the next opponent at the next game ?


If a team averages 15 turnovers a game, and the next opponent is a team that forces 15 turnovers a game, is it possible to assume that there will be 15 turnovers for that game ?

Or... we must take the league average as the basic unit to analyze this data: if the league average for turnovers is 16.4 that´s means that each team turnover rate is 109,33% compared to the league...


During the still concluded eBA Basketball Statistics Tracking Clinics I expressed my opinion that 'exclusive ratings' and 'scientific formulas' employ only a lacking minimum of the significantly important statistics: turnovers per possession and Defensive turnovers per possession; games won and games lost; etc.


But all other information as playoff game vs meaningless garbage time, recent injuries, possible matchup advantages, etc. (see the thread about eBA System Non Standard Statistics ) are disregarded.

Homecourt advantage is usually disregarded too, (see this thread about Home & Road Stats: differences ) meanwhile the Game Analysis & Scouting takes in account every one of this categories, and much more.


You can reach to the answer to your question by a different way: express the team's turnover proclivity in terms of the proportion of possessions that end in turnover - according to the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System Archives: around the 15,97% of the possessions end in turnover.

About the true percentage of team possessions used:
We know that the 'Usage Rate' is the formula to determine how many possessions a player uses. But which is its significance ?.

If a player keep an account of a high usage of possessions that means he is the one who has the greatest effect of on how well the team performs ?


So if that team is great and he leads the league in 'usage rate' would that make him the best player in the game ?

The team's offense is a measure of how well its high-usage players are shooting: in a good offense, the high-usage player is usually effective; in a bad offense, the high-usage player is usually ineffective.


The eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System doesn't applies "Usage Rate" because it's not really measures possessions and doesn't really have anything to do with a player's defense.

We apply a stat that really measures usage:the percentage of team possessions used while on the floor.


Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24), against a 1 vs 4 defense !, has his shot blocked by Chicago Bulls small forward Luol Deng (9) in the final seconds of the second half of their NBA basketball game in Los Angeles on December 25, 2011. The Bulls won 88 to 87. In this UPI photograph by Lori Shepler from Dalje.com presented by #eBAStatsGroup #BasketballStatistics Analysis .

Photograph: Dalje.com

Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24), against a 1 vs 4 defense !, has his shot blocked by Chicago Bulls small forward Luol Deng (9) in the final seconds of the second half of their NBA basketball game in Los Angeles on December 25, 2011. The Bulls won 88 to 87.


Surely a player using up to 25-30% of team possessions is going to have a big effect on how well the offense performs, good or bad; by contrast, teams can get the best of low-efficiency, high-usage players and, rarely but possible, however have some decent offense.

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Spanish ~ Español - Sobre las Posesiones en Baloncesto que Terminan en Balón Perdido y el Porcentaje Real de Posesiones Usadas





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Creado/a por azarober. Última modificación: Domingo 15 de Abril, 2018 09:07:45 EDT por admin. (Versión 2)

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